sinovels 10. Short Yukos
10. Short Yukos
A difficult client came to Deutsche Bank (Petersburg) today, who was dissatisfied with three different account managers in a row.
"Hello, I'm Pierce."
"Li Xiang".
Li Xiang took the business card, glanced at it, and casually placed it on the coffee table in front of him.
There are seven or eight foreign banks operating in St. Petersburg. Li Xiang chose Deutsche Bank because of its lax management and poor compliance.
Regardless of whether there are problems with the funds, customers don't like banks constantly checking up on them.
It's more annoying when there's no problem.
I have no problems, yet you still keep checking and checking, wanting to see this and that, with each piece of information being more and more difficult to obtain. Why don't other banks have so many problems?
Relaxing regulations can attract more customers.
However, at the same time, if customers have problems, banks will also be fined for inadequate supervision.
This is itself a choice of business strategy.
Li Xiang came here because of its reputation, but the first three account managers were all too rigid. This Pierce, however, was quite good.
Judging from the scanned information, he is an adaptable person.
"Mr. Li, how can I help you?" Pierce asked with a professional smile.
Li Xiang opened his backpack, took out the property certificate for the suburban villa, and placed it in front of Pierce.
"I want to mortgage my property."
"A detached house in Green Mountain City, near Finland Bay, that's a great location." Pierce closed the property deed, looked up at Li Xiang, and asked, "How much are you looking to borrow?"
Li Xiang: "The more the better."
"Wait a minute, I need to check the housing prices in Green Mountain City." Pierce opened his laptop and searched the internal data. "We'll only know the exact amount you can borrow after the assessment is completed. I've estimated it for you, and it's expected to be between $12 and $16."
"Since you plan to repay the loan over several years, let me calculate the interest for you..."
You can only borrow rubles from Russian banks, and the ruble is currently appreciating. Borrowing in US dollars would allow you to profit from the exchange rate difference.
The business regarding the mortgaged property went very smoothly.
"I'd also like to open a securities account."
Pierce greeted him with a smile, "Our bank's minimum account opening amount is $100,000."
Li Xiang took a sip of coffee and said casually, "Didn't you already calculate that I can get at least 12 yuan in loans for that apartment? I'll deposit the money as soon as the loan is approved."
"You took out a loan to speculate on stocks?" Pierce's lips twitched slightly.
"Is that not allowed?"
Pierce quickly replied, "Of course, it's just a bit of a surprise."
"Do you think I'm a gambler?"
"No, at your age, to buy a villa in Green Mountain City right off the bat, your family must be quite well-off."
Li Xiang frankly stated, "I'm planning to buy some Yukos put options. What do you think?"
Pierce said with a wry smile, "Yukos' stock price movement depends entirely on the Kremlin's attitude; whether it goes up or down is a gamble."
"I bet it will go bankrupt."
"You received the message?"
"Even if someone does receive this kind of news, it's unlikely to be someone with my East Asian face," Li Xiang said with a smile. He continued, "When you see an opportunity, you have to seize it."
"Yukos, you might be wrong. What about the Russian housing market?"
Pierce: "There's a lot of room for growth, and there shouldn't be any major problems in the next four or five years."
"I'm also bullish," Li Xiang added. "If this round of housing market growth can really be sustained for another four or five years, conservatively speaking, the appreciation of my villa alone will cover most of my loan this time, with a shortfall of at most 20,000 to 30,000 yuan."
"Based on 30,000, the risk exposure is 30,000 US dollars."
"I used my mortgage to go all in on Yukos put options, betting on its bankruptcy."
"If I bet right, how much can I earn?"
"It's hard to say." Pierce pondered for two seconds. "It would have to be at least several hundred thousand, maybe even a million."
Li Xiang smiled faintly, "Using 30,000 to gamble for a million, can I still call that gambling?"
"Brilliant!" Pierce clapped repeatedly, flattering him.
In his eyes, Li Xiang's entire body was radiating golden light.
Financial brokers love technical gamblers the most – they have plenty of money and are willing to bet.
Unlike ordinary gamblers, who gamble on luck.
Technical analysts have a complete set of self-consistent logic. Regardless of whether this logic is correct or not, as long as they believe in it, they will not easily cut their losses, even if they face huge unrealized losses.
Moreover, once he wins using this logic, he will continue to believe it.
"Mr. Li, are you in Russia on business?"
Li Xiang replied, "Studying abroad."
"That's quite busy," Pierce said, seizing the opportunity to promote his services. "The financial markets are constantly changing, and the worst thing is missing an opportunity. If you don't have time to manage your account yourself, you might consider our private banking services."
Li Xiang gave an awkward smile, "Your private bank has a high threshold. I heard it's one million US dollars. If I could come up with that, would I need to mortgage my house?"
"Rules are rules, but people are flexible. If you're interested, I can help you apply," Pierce said preemptively. "It's not guaranteed to be approved; I don't have the authority to grant those approvals, but there's no harm in trying. I don't think it'll be a big problem."
"Then I'll have to trouble you."
It would be great to be able to open a private bank account in Germany and enjoy the benefits of a high-net-worth client.
It was a pleasant surprise.
Although Germany doesn't have the same extensive influence in Russia as Morgan Stanley, it has deep roots in the local area, and much of the shady money is siphoned off through this channel.
Li Xiang's shorting of Yukos wasn't a spur-of-the-moment decision; he remembered it.
The victor is king, the loser is villain; Khodorkovsky was repeatedly humiliated and beaten to the ground by Prussia.
Although the person is imprisoned, the assets are still outside, the most important of which is the equity of Yukos.
In its previous life, Yukos was forced into bankruptcy and merged into Rosneft, becoming state-owned.
It was 06. I remember it because it was the year of the World Cup in Germany, but I don't remember the exact date.
The matter even reached the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which ruled that Russia should pay $500 billion in damages to Yukos shareholders. Of course, the ruling was useless as it could not be enforced.
Li Xiang opened an account at Deutsche Bank to find a witness to fully witness his rise to wealth.
The mortgage loan was originally intended for the transfer of jerseys, but Li Xiang misappropriated it without Natasha's knowledge.
How can you do business if you don't have any money?
Old Li, the horse is thin but has long hair and fat hooves. If a son steals from his father, it's not considered a thief. In times like this, he can only betray his father.
-
Dongguan, at the entrance of a garment factory.
"Leave a message on QQ if you need anything. What are you doing at the factory? Come on, my car is over there. Let's talk in the car."
Old Li's eyes darted around furtively, like a thief.
"I'm not very bright, I can't type properly." The woman who came to see Lao Li was an overweight middle-aged woman.
"Write it by hand, take a picture of it, I don't use that QQ account often, I'll reply to you as soon as I see it."
boarding.
"What do you want?" Old Li breathed a sigh of relief, started his car, and left; the area wasn't safe.
"Do you think I wanted to come to you?" the fat woman said timidly. "My son wants to study in the US, but you know my situation; I simply can't afford it. If you're willing to contribute a little, I'll let him go; if not, that's fine too."
"Isn't it a bit late for him to study abroad now?" Old Li found an alley and turned into it.
The plump woman sighed, "He's failed the civil service exam three times in a row, and now he wants to study abroad. He's just making things up. If you ask me, he should just find a job in a factory, but he doesn't want to."
"How's Hibiki doing? Is he easy to take care of?"
Old Li slammed on the brakes. "Troublesome my foot! He asked me to send him 10,000 sets of thermal underwear, and the goods were delivered but he still hasn't received payment. Every time I ask, he just tells me to wait a little longer."
"You can never hear a single truth from him, I don't know who he takes after."