Rebirth: Starting from Lighting Up the Tech Tree

Chapter 188 Market Share No. 1

The industry analysis report, published by a third-party organization, is called the "Global Commercial Space Market Annual White Paper." It is released annually and tracks the number of launches, success rates, market orders, and customer distribution of major commercial space companies worldwide. It is considered one of the most authoritative references in the industry.

This year's report was released two weeks earlier than usual, and the cover description was just one sentence: "The market landscape has fundamentally changed." On the day of the release, when industry insiders received the email notification, a quarterly summary meeting was in progress in the conference room. Some people immediately opened their phones, saw the first page, and turned the screen to show the person next to them. Zuo Cheng wasn't in that conference room; he was reading it alone in his office.

Liu Wei sent the electronic version to the core management group, with only one line attached: "You can look at the first page first."

Zuo Cheng opened the report. The first page contained only one chart: a pie chart of the global commercial launch market share.

The largest blue block is labeled 402, 35.7%.

Second in the orange category is SpaceX, with 29.4%.

The remaining portion was distributed to more than a dozen other companies.

Zuo Cheng put down his phone, made himself a cup of coffee, sat back down, and carefully read the report from beginning to end.

The data source is the entire year's launch records, and the statistics are calculated based on payload mass, not the number of launches. This is more advantageous for 402, as the Sky-2 has a larger payload capacity and can carry a heavier payload per launch. The report's analysis section is quite direct: 402 completed 89 commercial launches in the past twelve months, 73 of which used recovered rockets, a reuse rate of 82%, the highest among all commercial space companies worldwide. The continued decline in launch costs gives 402 a significant competitive advantage in pricing for low Earth orbit and sun-synchronous orbit launches, with some customers reporting that their prices are only one-third of the market price two years ago.

Zuo Cheng read this passage twice.

On the same day the report was released, Reuters and Bloomberg published news articles with headlines such as "Global Commercial Space Market Landscape Shifts." Bloomberg's article provided a more detailed analysis, pointing out that this was the first time since the rise of the commercial space industry that SpaceX had lost its top market share position, replaced by a Chinese private company founded less than four years ago, whose growth rate has not yet slowed down.

The domestic media reacted even more enthusiastically, with the news trending on multiple platforms and generating over 200,000 comments, most of which were direct expressions of admiration. Some comments were quite simple: "China's aerospace industry has truly caught up."

The news spread throughout 402, flooding the work group chat. Engineers at the launch site, technicians on the satellite production line, and researchers at the research institute were all sending messages. One message read, "We really did it." Zuo Cheng saw this message but didn't reply, though he silently acknowledged its truth.

Yu Ying walked in with the printed copy and placed the first page flat on Zuo Cheng's table; it was the pie chart.

Are you satisfied with this year's figures?

"It's three months faster than expected," Zuo Cheng said.

Yu Ying said that the main contributor was the European orders. Feng Rui led seven out of twenty launch missions, with an average launch capacity 20% higher than that of domestic clients, accounting for about four percentage points of the increase. Additional contracts from Jiutian Satellite also contributed, with launch demand this year exceeding the initial contract by three times.

Zuo Cheng asked, "What's SpaceX's reaction?"

Han Lu poked her head in from the doorway and said, "SpaceX just announced its next-generation rocket launch plan today, saying they aim to achieve 20 launches per month next year. Also, their founder posted on social media that competition makes the space industry healthier, and welcomes 402 to keep it up."

Zuo Cheng said he always spoke with great grace. That's for next year; let's focus on doing our own thing.

He flipped to the forecast section at the back of the report, where the institution presented two scenario predictions: in an optimistic scenario, 402 would remain at 35% next year, while in a pessimistic scenario, it would drop to 28% due to pressure from new competitors. Zuo Cheng underlined this section and showed it to Yu Ying.

Yu Ying said that institutions are usually pessimistic and should leave themselves a way out when making predictions.

Zuo Cheng said, "Yes, but one thing is true. Market share won't last automatically; it needs technological iteration and cost reduction to maintain. Our current advantage isn't a static position, but a trajectory that's still moving forward."

Yu Ying nodded and said, "What are your thoughts for the next step?"

Zuo Cheng mentioned three things. First, the launch cost of Cangqiong-2 will be reduced again this year, with a target of below $1,000 per kilogram. Second, the Cangqiong-3 project has been approved, with a low-Earth orbit payload capacity of 20 tons and a two-year development cycle, coinciding perfectly with the large-scale launch milestone of the StarNet program. Third, industry standards are about to be implemented. After achieving the world's largest market share, our say in standard setting will be completely different, and this window of opportunity cannot be missed.

Yu Ying said that Li Guodong is already preparing for the International Commercial Space Conference next month, and 402 is one of the initiators of the agenda. I will submit the proposal for the Sky Dome-3 project today.

Zuo Cheng said there was one more thing: with the market share results in hand, order conversion needed to keep up. Several clients who had been observing should be coming to talk now. As for Han Lu, he told her to take the initiative and not wait for them to call.

Han Lu responded from the doorway, saying that arrangements had been made. Three companies were scheduled to come to Hangzhou for talks in the next two days, and two more had scheduled video conferences.

Zuo Cheng nodded.

In this industry, market share figures are signals; customers are watching whether you can maintain that signal. 35% represents launch success rate, on-time delivery rate, and after-sales response speed. Every launch is a demonstration to potential customers. With 89 launches a year, as long as you continue to maintain consistency, new orders will keep pouring in.

Voices could be heard coming from the corridor outside. Several launch site engineers had just returned from Hainan and were discussing the schedule for the next batch of rockets. "Cangqiong-2" was mentioned several times, followed by the phrase "new record".

Zuo Cheng closed the report and pushed it to the table.

35.7% is a number, but what he cares more about is the underlying logic: the competitive landscape created by the combination of low cost, high density, and reusability. Any competitor trying to catch up simultaneously would need three to five years. And in those three years, 402 won't stand still. Cangqiong-3 will be operational, satellites from the StarNet project will be launched into orbit in batches, and industry standards will be established. The window of opportunity for competition will only narrow, not widen.

He walked to the window. The sun was shining brightly in Hangzhou, and the West Lake in the distance was shimmering in the afternoon light.

The commercial space mission chain has a few final nodes: standards development, and then the seventh branch.

Every step is not yet complete, but today's number is a clear signpost.

Number one in the world, 402 has arrived.